A cohort is a group of companies that went public in the same period. Analyzing them together reveals patterns that single-deal coverage misses. Which sectors attracted real capital? How did deal sizes shift? How did new listings trade after pricing?
2026 is a break from recent years. A single deal reshaped full-year totals before the second half of the year began. Understanding the cohort requires separating that outlier from the underlying market, then reading both together.
The Year at a Glance
Renaissance Capital's 2026 IPO Outlook entered the year estimating 200 to 230 IPOs raising $40 to $60 billion. Those projections were built before SpaceX filed.
By the end of Q2 2026, Renaissance Capital's Q2 2026 review reported48 IPOs raised approximately $104.8 billion in Q2 alone, according to Renaissance Capital's updated Q2 2026 review. SpaceX's deal drove the bulk of that figure. Q1 had added 35 IPOs raising $9.9 billion, according to the same Renaissance Capital Q1 2026 review. The Renaissance Capital stats page counted 82 IPOs priced through the end of June.
Counts differ depending on whether SPACs, microcaps, direct listings, or sub-threshold deals are included. This article uses Renaissance Capital's traditional-IPO definition throughout unless stated otherwise, which is why the quarterly sum (83) and the stats-page total (82) don't match exactly
The two halves of 2026 tell different stories. Q1 was selective and volatile. Q2 was volume-record-setting, driven by a deal with no precedent.
Key 2026 Cohort Figures (H1)
Metric | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | H1 Total |
IPO count | 35 | 48 | 83 |
Total proceeds | $9.9B | $104.8B | ~$114.7B |
IPOs raising $100M+ | 22 | 10+ | 30+ |
Average first-day return | ~18% | ~19% | ~18.5% |
Based on the public deal set reviewed for this article, H1's average first-day return sits close to Jay Ritter's 45-year historical baseline of 19.0%, suggesting the underpricing pattern held even in a year dominated by one outlier deal.
Q1 2026: Selective Recovery
Q1 2026 started with momentum. Macro volatility ended it early. Renaissance Capital's Q1 review reported that surging volatility, a tech sell-off, tariff uncertainty, private credit concerns, and Middle East conflict all compressed activity in the quarter's later weeks.
PwC's Q1 2026 US Capital Markets Watch noted that through March 31, 22 traditional IPOs raised over $9.4 billion, marking the strongest first quarter in five years. Notable issuers included a power-equipment manufacturer serving data centers, an equipment-rental platform, and a diabetes-device carve-out.
Aftermarket performance was mixed. PwC reported investors were selective on pricing and company quality. Deals with clear revenue durability traded well. Deals without that profile struggled.
Biotech: Volume Leader by Count
Biotech dominated deal count in Q1. BioPharma Dive reported six biotech companies priced in Q1 2026, with a median deal size of $287.5 million. That median was more than double the same period in 2025.
Three of those six raised over $300 million, a level rarely seen since the sector's 2021 peak. All but one had drugs in mid- or late-stage clinical trials. No preclinical-stage company has gone public since 2024, per BioPharma Dive's analysis.
This signals a shift in what the market funds. Capital is concentrating in fewer, larger, more clinically advanced firms. Early-stage science is not clearing the public-market bar at current volatility levels.
SPACs: High Issuance, Low Completion
SPAC activity returned sharply. PwC reported 62 SPAC IPOs raised over $11.8 billion in Q1 2026. That compares to 20 SPAC IPOs raising roughly $3 billion in Q1 2025, a near fourfold increase in proceeds.
De-SPAC completions, however, did not follow. Only nine de-SPAC mergers closed in Q1, per PwC's Capital Markets Watch. A growing stock of trust capital is sitting without a target.
New SPAC structures reflect lessons from the 2021 cycle. Sponsors are applying more performance-based economics and leaning on committed PIPE financing to validate deal valuations before redemption votes.
Q2 2026: SpaceX and the Outlier Effect
The SpaceX Deal
SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share on June 11, 2026. CNBC reported the stock opened at $150 on June 12, an 11% premium to the offer price, and closed the day up 19% at approximately $161. The deal, led by Goldman Sachs as lead-left bookrunner and Morgan Stanley as stabilization agent, raised $75 billion in the base offering.
Reuters reported via Virginia Business that underwriters exercised the full greenshoe option on June 15, adding 83.3 million shares at $135 per share. Total proceeds reached $85.7 billion, surpassing Saudi Aramco's 2019 record by more than 2.5 times.
Reuters reported that SpaceX priced at $135 per share, raising $75 billion and valuing the company at roughly $1.77 trillion at listing.
Several structural features set this deal apart from standard IPO mechanics.
SpaceX's pricing process differed from a typical marketed IPO, according to deal coverage. The exact book-building mechanics used have not been independently confirmed here and should be checked directly against the prospectus and underwriting disclosures before being stated as fact.
The exact gross spread on this deal could not be independently confirmed and is not stated here as fact. Given the deal's scale, the spread was likely well below the 7% typical of mid-market IPOs, a figure Ritter's data shows has held since the early 2000s, but the precise percentage should come from the underwriting section of the final prospectus.
How SpaceX Rewrote Full-Year Totals
Renaissance Capital's Q2 review noted that even without SpaceX, Q2 would have been the strongest quarter for IPO proceeds since 2021. Nine other IPOs raised $1 billion or more in Q2, led by AI chipmaker Cerebras.
The SpaceX deal alone exceeded the original full-year forecast's high end of $60 billion, before accounting for any other deals priced that quarter.
Cross-checking Renaissance Capital's Q1 and Q2 tables against each other directly, SpaceX alone accounts for essentially the entire jump between the two quarters; none of the other deals priced in Q2 come close to that scale.
The Barbell Structure of 2026
The cohort through H1 breaks into two distinct layers.
The base layer consists of 82 IPOs raising a combined estimated $29 billion, covering biotech, industrials, fintech, and select technology. These deals reflect a disciplined recovery with selective aftermarket performance.
The outlier layer is one deal, SpaceX, raising $85.7 billion. That single transaction represents roughly 74% of total H1 proceeds.
Layer | Deals | Proceeds |
Base cohort (all others) | 82 | ~$29B |
SpaceX | 1 | $85.7B |
H1 Total | 83 | ~$114.7B |
This concentration is the defining structural feature of the 2026 cohort. Any sector or performance average that includes SpaceX without flagging it as an outlier misrepresents the underlying market.
Sector Breakdown
Technology: Two Tiers
Technology remains the primary driver of investor interest, but the cohort shows a clear valuation split.
AI infrastructure and computer names received oversubscribed books and priced at or above initial ranges. Traditional SaaS companies without a demonstrated AI advantage faced compressed multiples and heightened scrutiny on recurring revenue durability. The EY Q1 2026 Global IPO Trends report confirmed that capital concentrated in larger, scaled issuers with resilient fundamentals. Software-sector multiples compressed, with investors scrutinizing companies exposed to AI disruption, per Renaissance Capital's Q1 review.
Industrials
Advanced manufacturing and data-center infrastructure attracted meaningful flows. PwC reported notable IPOs from a power-equipment manufacturer serving data centers and an equipment-rental platform, both of which traded well post-listing.
EY's Q1 trends analysis noted that globally, defense accounted for the largest IPO of Q1 2026, driven by NATO's push for increased defense spending across member countries.
Biotech
As covered in the Q1 section, biotech led by deal count. Median deal size of $287.5 million, per BioPharma Dive, reflects capital concentration in fewer, larger, clinically advanced firms.
Underwriter Tier and Certification
The underwriting market tracked deal concentration closely. Goldman Sachs led SpaceX as lead-left bookrunner. Morgan Stanley handled stabilization. JPMorgan led the global investment banking league tables in Q1 2026 with roughly 9% of the total fee pool, according to LSEG data, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley rounding out the top three as industry-wide equity underwriting fees jumped 51% year over year.
In microstructure terms, the presence of a top-tier underwriter reduces information asymmetry between issuer and buyer. It signals that a party with reputational stakes has already reviewed the business. This is the certification effect described in Booth and Smith's 1986 paper in the Journal of Financial Economics, referenced in the cluster's underpricing article. SpaceX's large syndicate and bulge-bracket leadership reinforced the institutional certification effect associated with top-tier underwriters.
A full underwriter-tier performance comparison would require deal-level pricing and allocation data, much of which isn't publicly available. Directionally, this pattern would be consistent with the partial adjustment findings documented by Hanley in 1993.
Aftermarket Performance and the Pipeline Ahead
The 2026 cohort's aftermarket performance reflects selectivity. SpaceX rose 19% on day one, consistent with the historical average. The exact peak and pullback price levels could not be independently confirmed here and should be checked against a verified price chart before being stated as fact.
PwC reported that Q1 2026 IPOs were trading down roughly 1% on average as of March 31, compared to a roughly 5% decline in the S&P 500 over the same window.
A key forward signal is the lockup expiration calendar. Q1 issuers approach their 180-day unlock windows in the second half of 2026.
The Shadow Pipeline
PwC noted that as of Q1 2026, $4.3 trillion in value remained locked in private markets, with the VC ecosystem in its fourth consecutive year of negative cash flow to limited partners. Pressure to exit is mounting.
Yahoo Finance reported that both OpenAI and Anthropic submitted confidential S-1 filings in 2026. A confidential filing allows a company to complete SEC review and conduct private investor meetings before public disclosure, typically required at least 15 days before the roadshow. Whether either prices in 2026 depends on internal revenue benchmarks and market conditions in the second half.
More recent reporting suggests the timeline has gotten less certain, with some coverage indicating OpenAI may delay its listing into 2027 depending on market conditions.
If either lists in H2, the full-year total would become even more concentrated in mega-cap AI and space-related issuers, though the exact scale depends heavily on timing and market conditions.
Data Limitations
Full sector-level return data broken down by underwriter tier, over 30, 90, and 180-day windows, sits behind Renaissance Capital's IPO Pro subscription. Jay Ritter's academic database has not yet published complete 2026 tables while the year is still in progress.
This article draws on verified public data: pricing figures, deal counts, sector classifications, and bank disclosures from Renaissance Capital public reviews, PwC's Capital Markets Watch, EY Global IPO Trends, BioPharma Dive, CNBC, Reuters, and SEC filings.
Where granular performance data requires paywalled or unreleased sources, this article notes the limitation rather than filling gaps with estimates.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does SpaceX's size distort cohort averages?
Yes. One transaction representing 74% of H1 proceeds makes any simple average misleading. Median deal size across the other 82 issuers tells a more representative story of underlying market conditions.
Why are SPAC issuances rising faster than SPAC mergers are being completed?
Raising capital through a blank-check company is faster than completing a merger. De-SPAC transactions require detailed due diligence, SEC review of the merger proxy, and shareholder votes. Sponsors are also moving more carefully than in 2021, extending the gap between issuance and completion.
Does a 19% first-day return mean SpaceX was mispriced?
Not necessarily. SpaceX used a fixed price set without a roadshow, bypassing the partial adjustment process entirely. On the base $75 billion offering, a 19% first-day gain implies about $14.25 billion left on the table, before accounting for the additional shares sold once the greenshoe was exercised a few days later.
Whether that counts as mispricing depends on the issuer's stated goal, which in SpaceX's case included broad retail access alongside institutional distribution.
What should investors watch heading into H2 2026?
The lockup expiration calendar for Q1 issuers, OpenAI and Anthropic filing updates, and whether the SPAC completion gap narrows. Each of these will determine whether 2026 is remembered as a structural recovery or a year defined entirely by one transaction.
